CEIS - CENTRE FOR ECONOMICS AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

Scientific coordinator: Prof. Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo

The objective of the project, coordinated by Professor Pasquale Lucio Scandizzo, is to create a sub national macroeconomic model for the state of Quintana Roo which can be used as a tool for decision support. Particular attention was given to the development of the tourism sector.
The first stage of this project was realized through a one-week seminar at the Faculty of Economics at Tor Vergata (May 14 to 18, 2012) which was attended by representatives of all institutions involved in the project under the auspices of the World Bank.
At the end of seminars a delegation of the Secreteria Medio Ambiente del Gobierno de Quintana Roo visited the National Park of Cilento to collect information on the tourism development plan and meet with local administrators including the mayor of Agropoli Franco Alfieri.

The seminar

A. General Training
The Social Accounting Matrix: background, history, common usage, the new wave of applications.
Estimation, construction and use of Social Accounting Matrices and related models
Computational algorithms and related software

B. More specific problems
Estimation from time series and statistical properties
Aggregation and disaggregation
Incorporating environmental accounts
Relationship with energy and environmental models (e.g. Markal)

C. Using the SAM to evaluate programs and projects
Estimate and interpretation of the multipliers
Choosing a counterfactual and estimating crowding out effects
Short and long run effects
Statistical problems: average multipliers, confidence intervals, option multipliers
Building “local SAMs” for special environments (villages, organizations etc.)

D. Developing estimates for Quintana Roo
Analyzing the estimates developed so far
Expanding environmental accounting
Disaggregating and expanding the cultural, ecological and tourism sectors

Work program

May 15, 2012
Tuesday 10 - 13: Introduction to Economic Evaluation and Social Account Matrix.
Prof. P.L. Scandizzo
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Tuesday 15 - 18: The CEIS Tor Vergata SAM Model.
C. Ferrarese
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May 16, 2012
Wednesday 10,30 - 12,30: Case study ecoarcheological park, the case of Quintana Roo.
V. Costa
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Wednesday 14,30 - 16,00: Case study a project evaluation by SAM: the case of Quintana Roo coral and mangroves.
E. Mazzoli
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Wednesday 16,00 - 18,30: Work session on Quintana Roo SAM. available data, assumption for the estimation data, disaggregation sectors by tourism and tourist ( data needed).
C. Ferrarese
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May 17, 2012
Thursday 10,30 - 12,30: A web based tool to use the SAM model.
F. Alfani
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Thursday 14,00 - 18,30: Work session on Quintana Roo Sam. SAM balancing at the base year. The multiplier matrix, The use of historic series. Monte carlo simulation with excel and crystal ball. Example of impact evaluation.
C. Ferrarese